World Finally Reaches 'Tipping Point' For Solar Power, Study Suggests

The solar power sector, after receiving considerable support from policymakers for several years, appears to be gaining momentum and functioning autonomously.

A group of researchers from the United Kingdom has developed three distinct models to monitor technological and economic snowball events, and the simulations indicate that solar power is well on its way to becoming the primary global energy source.

Climatologist Femke Nijsse, the lead author of the study and affiliated with the University of Exeter, predicts that solar photovoltaic (PV) energy will dominate the global energy mix by the middle of this century, even in the absence of additional governmental incentives such as a carbon tax.

Solar power has been steadily gaining traction over the years, achieving the status of the most cost-effective energy source in over 60 countries in 2016.

The International Energy Agency announced in 2020 that solar energy had officially become the most economical form of electricity in history, surpassing both coal and gas in most major countries.

If the decline in costs continues at its current pace, Nijsse and her colleagues believe that solar power could outperform all other energy alternatives within a decade or two.

In 2020, fossil fuels accounted for over 60 percent of global electricity production. However, the new models predict that by 2050, this figure will decrease to 21 percent. In contrast, solar power is projected to be responsible for 56 percent of worldwide electricity generation.

The research team suggests that if this scenario were to materialize, a crucial tipping point for renewable energy in the power sector could be imminent or may have already been surpassed. As a result, the policy and finance domains should prepare for a swift and disruptive transition.

In 2020, fossil fuels produced 62 percent of electricity. This percentage is predicted to drop to 21 percent in 2050, with solar responsible for 56 percent of production. (Nijsse et al., Nature Communications, 2023)

To investigate the threshold at which a significant change occurs, a group of researchers conducted a series of simulations that were based on the interactions between global energy, technology, and the economy.

In over 70 percent of the simulations, solar energy accounted for half of the world's electricity generation by the year 2050.

The researchers assert that, as a result of the mutually reinforcing relationship between the costs and deployment of technology, their analysis provides empirical evidence, derived from current and historical data trends, that a tipping point for solar energy is highly likely to have already been surpassed.

Furthermore, they suggest that this implies the feasibility and probability of solar energy attaining dominance.

Should this proposition hold true, the authors, Nijsse and colleagues, contend that rather than governments offering additional incentives for solar energy, the focus should now shift towards facilitating the smooth transition towards solar energy, which they deem as 'inevitable'.

Global maps showing cheapest electricity sources in 2020 (a), 2023 (b), 2027 (c) and 2030 (d). (Nijsse et al., Nature Communications, 2023)

The primary impediments to the technological ascendency pertain to insufficient financial resources in economically disadvantaged nations, a well-balanced and resilient power grid, augmented dependence on precious metals, such as aluminum, and opposition from the diminishing fossil fuel industry.

This ultimate aspect assumes significant significance since the prevalence of solar energy does not necessarily guarantee the establishment of a carbon-neutral system.

Although Nijsse and colleagues contend that "projections based on fossil fuel dominance are no longer feasible," there remains a tangible possibility that coal and gas will manage to persist.

"We deduce that the attainment of power systems devoid of carbon emissions likely necessitates novel policies that deviate from the conventional discourse within the energy modeling community," assert the researchers.

"The price on carbon emissions necessary to achieve a cost equilibrium between renewable energy sources and fossil fuels may soon become zero. Instead, it is policies targeting the aforementioned barriers… that have the potential to facilitate the achievement of zero-net energy emissions."

The research was disseminated in the scientific journal Nature Communications.